Crunching numbers on Georgia State vs. Oregon

Royce Freeman is a dangerous weapon in Oregon's offense. (Chris Pietsch/AP)

Royce Freeman is a dangerous weapon in Oregon’s offense. (Chris Pietsch/AP)

Georgia State will play at Oregon on Saturday in exchange for $900,000.

It’s not the first payday game the Panthers have played and it won’t be the last.

I was curious to see how the team has performed in those games — Alabama (twice), Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington and Clemson — so I took a few averages of the results, just to try to get an idea of what Saturday’s result might look like.

By no means is this a predictive exercise. The Panthers had different teams for those games. For a few they were playing at a different level (FCS, not FBS). Plus, the opponents used different offenses and defenses.

Here are the averages (averages under passing is yards per completion):

Big 5 GSU
Points 45.5 7.3
1st downs 25.2 12.5
Rushing 210.5 72.8
Avg. 5.2 2.1
Passing 257.8 135.7
Avg. 12.1 10.3
Total 468.3 208.5
Turnovers 0.8 2.7
Sacks by 2.2 1.2

 

Here are the same averages for Georgia State this season:

2015 GSU
Points 27.5 27
1st downs 25 22
Rushing 124 151.5
Avg. 3.2 4.2
Passing 344.5 335.5
Avg. 13.8 11.8
Total 468.5 487
Turnovers 3 3
Sacks by 2 3.5

 

Here are the same averages for Oregon this season:

2015 Oregon
Points 36.5 44.5
1st downs 26 30
Rushing 154 304
Avg. 4.5 6.1
Passing 315 277.5
Avg. 11.1 13.5
Total 469 581.5
Turnovers 1.5 1.5
Sacks by 2.5 0.5

And here are Oregon’s averages in their past five losses:

Opp. Oregon
Points 34.4 21.6
1st downs 26.4 23
Rushing 255.8 131.8
Avg. 4.58 3.62
Passing 200.4 300.4
Avg. 12.64 13.24
Total 456.2 432.2
Turnovers 1.4 2
Sacks by 2.8 1

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